KJ over at The Only Colors has been occasionally posting what he calls PORPAG — Points Over Replacement Per Adjusted Game. What it does is takes a player’s offensive rating (ORtg) — which is all of a players offensive contributions rolled into one number — and adjusts for a players usage percentage (essentially assigning credit/blame when his actions end a possession) and minutes (minutes % which is the number of minutes out of all team’s possible minutes played) and compares it against a replacement level ORtg.
KJ set the replacement level ORtg at 88 in the Big Ten but I’m going to use 83 as that was roughly the average of the ninth best ORtg on all MAC teams this year. You then adjust this number for the league-average pace — 66 possessions in the MAC — and you have created a PORPAG.
The exact formula I’ve used is:
(Players ORTg-Replacement ORtg)*Poss%*Min%*66/100
On to the results!Well, not exactly. I extracted my data from KenPom and his conference leader boards only have players with at least 40% min%. So it’s not an exhaustive list, but it gets all of the players getting a good number of minutes for each squad so it’s suitable enough.
As with anything, there’s caveats and whatnot. Click through to read those. Still, this is a useful measure to estimate the number of points a player is generating over what I’m determining as an replacement level player per the designated number of possessions (66). The data is through Monday, Feb. 2nd. Enough stalling.
Demetrius Ward combines a very good ORtg with some relatively high usage and min%’s to be the only Bronco in the top ten.
I don’t think you needed this metric to see that Norther Illinois’ Xavier Silas has been the MAC’s best offensive player. Still, he’s pretty far ahead of Buffalo’s Byron Mulkey. A couple of Ohio Bobcats show up in the top five and that doesn’t help explain why they’re 4-5 in conference play thus far. No surprise to me that the lone Chippewa in the top five isn’t Trey Zeigler, rather it’s his teammate Jalin Thomas. Zeigler’s got a 87 ORtg and even with his high usage and minute’s this year, he’s been an inefficient scorer. It’ll be interesting to see if he makes a big leap next year or not.
For the rest of the Broncos, they line up as such:
The rank in the first column is their rank in the MAC. Four starters playing well and efficiently. Flen Whitfield and Nate Hutcheson are both playing below-average in terms of ORtg (where the league average of the 82 players I have is 97.5), but good number of minutes/usage keep them as positive contributers. Good to see Mikey Douglas up there with Matt Stainbrook as I don’t talk as much about Douglas as I do about Stainbrook, even though he’s just as effective as an offensive player. He just does it in a different way (passing) than Stainbrook (rebounding).